Article: “Better predictions of the working life of industrial components”

“A minor disparity between an established mathematical model to predict creep crack growth behavior in materials in high-temperature environments and actual data has prompted Dr. Warwick Payten to reassess the approach and revise the model.”

“Being able to more accurately predict crack growth in real components is highly useful because it allows you to potentially extend the life of operating industrial plants and conventional, solar and nuclear power stations with confidence,” said Payten, a senior nuclear fuel cycle researcher.”

In this kind of an RLE is would seem as first glance important to reduce all forms of bias to get the most accurate predictions possible. However, given the importance of the industrial components, there is at least one way in which bias can play an important role. There are risk-avoidance biases and these may be important when dealing with something like critical nuclear power plant components. It may be much better to make decisions that are not neutral but biased towards safety.